Back to the Future (Iraq-Report: US Withdrawal‪)‬

As US forces withdraw from Iraq, the country is once more wracked by sectarian bloodletting. Its political structures are falling apart, reconstruction has come to a virtual standstill, and foreign oil companies are shying away from providing billions of dollars in investment to rescue its crumbling oil industry, the backbone of its economy. On the face of it, the country seems doomed to more destructive convulsions, which in the absence of US military power, may threaten the very survival of a land that is seen as the birthplace of civilization. The pullout of US troops from Iraq's cities and towns in June under the first phase of the withdrawal agreement negotiated in December 2008 left a power vacuum between feuding Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds that is escalating and threatens to pull in Iran, Turkey and the Sunni states of the Gulf. The political structures that emerged in Iraq under US tutelage following the downfall of Saddam Hussein and his Sunni-dominated Baathist regime are collapsing. All the new political coalitions that are emerging are sectarian or ethnic in makeup, sharpening the divisions within Iraq. This has left the country in political turmoil as it heads toward parliamentary elections scheduled for January, a simultaneous referendum on the 2008 security agreement with the United States and the first post-Saddam census. "Because of their great potential in shaping the future distribution of power and political structure inside Iraq, all three proceedings will risk the possibility that Iraqi politics may revert back to civil war politics, when political factions engaged one another via militias," the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington think-tank, reported in a September analysis. "The January election offers a powerful forum where insurgents' attacks could provide the greatest political damage to the Iraqi government, especially against [Prime Minister Nuri al-] Maliki's prospects for retaining office. With US combat forces now disengaged from Iraqi Security Force missions in Iraq's urban areas, the trust and confidence the Iraqi people have in their security forces will be challenged by insurgents." The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the all-Shiite coalition led by Prime Minister Maliki, which had controlled parliament since 2005, fell apart in August. The major Shiite parties aligned with Maliki formed a new alliance that will challenge him in January. They have long criticized his attempts to include Baathists in the national reconciliation project.