Modeling the NPA of a Large Indian Public Sector Bank as a Function of Total Assets

Non-performing assets (NPA) are the loans given by a bank or a financial institution where in the borrower defaults or delays interest and / principal payment. The management of NPAs therefore, is a very important part of credit management of banks and financial institutions in the Country. Currently NPA estimates in India are predominantly obtained from figures published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However it would be helpful for banks and financial institutions to have an estimate of the NPA as soon as loan amounts are disbursed. This study attempted to develop a predictive model for the NPA% at both the gross and net level from the total assets of one of India’s largest public banks. A strong correlation was observed between gross and net NPA% and the total assets suggesting that estimates of gross and net NPA can be made from total assets. Linear and non linear models were fit to predict the NPA% from the total assets. A non linear model linking both Gross and net NPA to total assets provided the best curve fit and the least deviation from actual values. Thus by simply looking at the banks total assets an overall picture of the banks NPA level can be ascertained.