A fascinating, eye-opening, and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the United States—and the world—from one of our most incisive futurists
George Friedman has become a leading expert in geopolitical forecasting, sought after for his unmatched grasp of both historical and contemporary trends. In The Next 100 Years, Friedman turns his eye to the future. Drawing on a profound understanding of geopolitical patterns dating back to the Roman Empire, he shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, experiencing the dawn of a new historical cycle.
Friedman predicts that the US–Jihadist war will conclude, to be replaced by a second confrontation with Russia; China will undergo a major internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power; there will be at least one global war, but armies will be smaller and wars less deadly; and technology will focus on space, both for military uses and for energy. This book is a compelling, eye-opening portrait of the future.
Glad I Bought It
This was an enticing read. I say this even though at times I wasn't sure if I was reading a scholarly prediction of 21st century geopolitics or a work of historical fiction looking back from the year 2100, or even a work of science fiction. To his credit, Friedman gives repeated caveats that his predictions cannot be accurate in any detail and that specific events may or may not occur. Despite those warnings, he goes on to write as though he were authoring a history book written in 2100. It's a fascinating and unusual perspective. I wish I could be around in 2100 to see how many of his predictions prove to be true.
The most difficult prediction for me to accept is his view of the world's future energy source. Predictions that are outside the box are one thing but predictions that seem to violate known laws of physics are another thing altogether. His predictions of geopolitics seem more well-founded. Even there, though, his selection of the world's most important nations is surprising and somewhat hard to accept.
My biggest issue with him on the geopolitical front is his apparent continued commitment to symmetrical warfare waged between coalitions of nation states. Friedman gives no apparent credence to the possibility of highly asymmetrical warfare between insurgents and traditional governments.
Even though I remain highly skeptical about many of Friedman's predictions, I am glad that I bought this book. It is food for the mind.
Friedman is about 50 years behind with his perception of reality. His predictions hinge totally on America as a super-power with increasing global dominance and influence. I think those of us with any perspective realize this is an impossible long shot. Thus his predictions are flawed from the start. In addition he makes huge leaps based on superficial stats that are not threaded with any context and has a delusional preoccupation with the might and importance that an obsolete US Navy has in shaping major future events. He seems blind to the fact that terrorist tactics and guerilla warfare have changed the face of conflict in the modern age. 2 stars is generous…don’t waste your money on this one!
This was an excellent audiobook. Very informative with realistic predictions based on historical tendencies, and current socio-economical patterns.