A Model to Predict Whether an Online RPG Makes Gamers Loyal‪.‬

Abstract: It is very important for online game providers to develop games, which will sustain high loyalty of their customers. To our knowledge, there have been little studies on what they have to take into account in order to develop such games, especially RPGs (Role Playing Games). Therefore, we attempted to build a model that can be used to predict whether a new online RPG will make players loyal to it or not. First, we used Delphi Technique to find variables that have an effect on the customer loyalty. Then, we conducted a survey asking RPG garners to evaluate most popular 15 RPGs in terms of those variables. Using the survey data, we did factor analysis to identify factors among those variables and multiple regression analysis to compute the level of each factor's influence to customer loyalty. Lastly, we used the same data to generate a decision tree, a prediction model that can be used to predict the success of a new RPG. The result of this research is expected to give useful implications to both RPG developers and RPG evaluators. Keywords: online game, RPG, customer loyalty, factor analysis, OLS, decision tree, Delphi Technique Received 16 Aug 2003: Received and accepted 11 Oct. 2003