Availability of Refined Fuel Within the Indo-Pacific Area of Responsibility: DoD Military Warfighter Energy Needs in Asia, Risk Potential, Use of Military Sealift Command and Oil Tankers for Shipping

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This project will give Department of Defense (DoD) procurement and area planners an assessment on the availability of energy within the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) area of responsibility (AOR). The assessment will help make future decisions on sourcing energy purchases and may be expanded on with assumptions for risk potentials within the energy supply chain. This project includes market research on refined oil shipping and Military Sealift Command's capacity to move fuel to the warfighter. It includes research on tanker contracting procurement by Military Sealift Command, worldwide commercial tanker characteristics, and shipping activity within Asia.

East Asia has been the focus of United States' interest since Commodore Perry sailed into Yokosuka and forced the opening of Japanese ports and markets in 1853. American interest in East Asia increased during the Pacific War, and the region was a key focus of foreign policy during the Cold War communist containment policy when the United States fought wars in Korea and Vietnam. Although later wars in Afghanistan and Iraq shifted American foreign policy attention towards the Middle East, East Asia once again became the United States' primary focus during the Obama administration. In 2011, President Obama declared this change in policy when he said, "The United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region." United States interest in the region has continued under President Trump, taking a prominent place in the latest National Security Strategy. This focus on the region has led to a significant amount of literature that focuses on a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC).

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

I. Introduction * II. Background * A. Overview of the Energy Industry * 1. Upstream Segment * 2. Midstream Segment * 3. Downstream Segment * 4. Distribution * 5. Tankers Are the Primary Constraint * B. The People's Republic of China's Strategic Approach to Energy Security * 1. Energy Security * 2. Chinese Energy Security Policies * 3. Summary * C. Navy Petroleum Logistics During the Pacific War * 1. Geographical Factors and Force Structure Dictate Supply Chain Infrastructure * 2. Mobile Support and Forward Basing * 3. Planning Resources and Demand-Based Logistics * 4. Fuel Resupply Points and the Shuttle Ship Concept * 5. Time as a Wartime Priority Consideration * 6. Lessons from Beans, Bullets, and Black Oil * D. Defense Fuel Procurement and Transportation * 1. Bulk Petroleum Organization * 2. Planning Process * 3. Fuel Contracts * 4. Transportation * 5. Chartered Tankers * 6. Storage * 7. Distribution * 8. Summary * E. Defense Information Technology and Petroleum Product Supply Chain Management * 1. Global Combat Support System-Joint * 2. IT Systems Used by MSC to Manage Tankers * 3. LOGCOP at the Operational Level * III. Literature Review * A. Beans, Bullets, And Black Oil * B. Operations Research Models * 1. Fleishchmann's Pacific Tanker Delivery Model * 2. Rodgers's Bulk Fuel Supply Chain Model (BFSCM) * 3. Beaumont's Network Optimization Model * C. Summary * IV. Methodology * A. Data Extraction * 1. Fedbizopps * 2. Defining an Acceptable Charter * 3. IHS Maritime * B. Simulation Modeling * 1. Forming the Model Using Worldwide Tanker Data * 2. Forming the Model Using Data from the East Asia AOR * C. Limitations * D. Assumptions * V. Results * A. Worldwide Tanker Market Simulation * B. East Asia Tanker Market Simulation