Deterring Russia in the Gray Zone - Audacious Perspective Arguing for Holistic Strategy Using Instruments of National Power Across the Diplomacy, Information, Military and Economic (DIME) Model

This 2019 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. In order to deter Russian activity in the gray zone, the United States must shift its strategic framework from a predominantly military-centric model to one that comprises a whole-of-government approach. A whole-of-government approach requires the simultaneous application of various DIME measures.

One of the most complex challenges facing the United States and its allies today is how to deal with an increasingly bold and aggressive Russia. As evidenced by its invasion of Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, and unremitting influence operations against the West, Russia has engaged in an antagonistic foreign policy campaign that has both challenged and befuddled the United States and its allies. How should the United States respond? What measures can it take without igniting a major conflict? These are some of the difficult questions that the authors, active duty military officers, and national security fellows from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University address in this timely and prescient monograph. They offer an audacious perspective on how the United States should deal with Russia in this unconventional battlespace referred to by scholars today as the “gray zone,” or the conceptual space between war and peace where nations compete to advance their national interests. The authors argue that a more holistic strategy, one that relies less on conventional military might and more on the full array of instruments of national power, is necessary to more effectively operate in the gray zone. Specifically, they offer and expound upon myriad policy recommendations across the diplomacy, information, military, and economic (DIME) model, providing U.S. policymakers with a range of options to confront and deter Russia while protecting vital U.S. national security interests.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

Chapter 1. The Gray Zone * A Whole-of-Government Approach: The Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic (DIME) Apparatus * Understanding the Gray Zone * How is Russia Exploiting the Gray Zone? * The Gerasimov Doctrine * Gray Zone Challenges * Endnotes – Chapter 1 * Chapter 2. The Action Versus Inaction Conundrum * The Consequences of U.S. Inaction: The Status Quo Approach * “Damned if You Don’t, Not if You Do” — A Call for Action * Endnotes – Chapter 2 * Chapter 3. Rethinking Diplomatic Relations with Russia: The Common Ground Approach * Reset Diplomatic Staffing Levels * Promoting North Atlantic Treaty * Organization (NATO)-Russian Relations * Military-to-Military Cooperation * Cybersecurity * Syria * Nonproliferation and Nuclear Security * Arms Control * Space Exploration * Conclusion * Endnotes – Chapter 3 * Chapter 4. Shaping the Information Environment * Fighting Russian Misinformation Overseas I: The GEC * Fighting Russian Misinformation Overseas II: NATO Overt Actions * Fighting Russian Misinformation Overseas III: Covert Action * Fighting Russian Misinformation at Home: The OFI * Congressional Action * Presidential Leadership * Conclusion * Endnotes – Chapter 4 * Chapter 5. Creatively Leveraging Military Might * Coercion-Deterrence Dynamic — Deterrence by Denial * Revitalizing NATO * Improving Warfighting Capability in Europe * Conclusion * Endnotes – Chapter 5 * Chapter 6. Mastering the Art of Economic Statecraft * Trade Policy * Foreign Aid * Economic and Financial Sanctions * Shaping the New Energy Landscape * Conclusion * Endnotes – Chapter 6 * Chapter 7. U.S. Gray Zone Policy * Recommendations * Diplomacy Recommendations * Information Recommendations * Military Recommendations * Economic Recommendations