Generational Replacement, Value Shifts, And Support for a Sovereign Quebec (1)‪.‬

This article examines the values of different generations of Quebecers and considers how values influence whether Quebecers support or oppose sovereignty. My previous research has demonstrated that supporters of sovereignty are more likely than are opponents of sovereignty to share certain values, such as moral permissiveness and egalitarianism. These values are most prevalent among Quebecers born after 1945, and there is reason to believe that a value shift resulting from generational replacement will increase support for a sovereign Quebec in the future as older generations are replaced by younger generations with different values. On the other hand, the youngest generations of Quebecers tend to be less interested in politics and to have less confidence in the ability of governments to solve societal problems. Consequently, it may be very difficult for any political movement to mobilize younger Quebecers. Using data from the 2000 Canadian Election Study (CES) and other public opinion surveys, this article explores the values of different generations of Quebecers that may influence them to support or oppose sovereignty. My analysis is limited to Francophones--defined as those who speak French at home--because this is the group that provides the constituency for the sovereigntist movement. Those whose first language is English are almost unanimously opposed to sovereignty, and those whose primary language is neither French nor English are highly unlikely to support sovereignty. (2) One should be careful, however, not to confuse language and ethnicity in Quebec. My sample does include French-speakers of non-French ethnicity--including many immigrants and children of immigrants. Recent studies demonstrate that the gap between Quebecers of French ethnicity and Quebecers of other ethnicities regarding support for sovereignty is narrowing rapidly (Lavoie and Serre). In 1997, for example, 57 percent of Quebec Francophones of French ethnicity supported sovereignty, whereas 49 percent of Quebec Francophones of other ethnicities supported sovereignty. (3)