Risk Intelligence
How to Live with Uncertainty
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- CHF 16.00
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- CHF 16.00
Beschreibung des Verlags
There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn't correlate with IQ and most psychologists fail to spot it because it is found in such a disparate, rag-tag group of people such as weather-forecasters, professional gamblers and hedge-fund managers.
This book shows just how important risk intelligence is. Many people in positions which require high risk intelligence - doctors, financial regulators and bankers - seem unable to navigate doubt and uncertainty. Risk Intelligence is a traveller's guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation. Dylan Evans shows us how risk intelligence is vital to making good decisions, from dealing with climate change to combating terrorism. He argues that we can all learn a lot from expert gamblers, not just about money, but about how to make decisions in all aspects of our lives.
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A lecturer in behavioral science at University College Cork School of Medicine in Ireland, Evans (Placebo: The Belief Effect) defines risk intelligence as "the ability to estimate probabilities accurately," such as the probability of a car crash or the truth of a rumor. Evans explores everything from climate change predictions to Homeland Security's color-coded system that supposedly rated the risk of terrorist attacks. Evans outlines why many are so bad at estimating probabilities with sometimes devastating consequences, such as in the financial crisis and 9/11 and how one can become better at it, since it's a vital skill for gaining success in life. With an arsenal of studies and statistics, he covers fascinating topics, including battlefield strategies, overconfidence, lies, and the tendency to follow the crowd, despite obvious evidence they are wrong. Much is contrary to accepted beliefs, for instance, "the mind-reading illusion": research shows we don't read other people as well as we think we do. He concludes with the results of his online risk intelligence test. After studying the techniques detailed here, readers of this valuable manual will be better able to "gauge the limits of own knowledge" and increase their ability to make fact-based decisions.
