Sino-Japanese Relations: Interdependence, Rivalry and Regional Security (Report‪)‬

Interdependence theory claims that increased trade and closer economic ties would reduce the likelihood of conflict and bring greater security. Increased interdependence between the two major Asian rivals--China and Japan--has given hope for an end to the disputes which have marred their relationship and for an eventual reconciliation between them. Nevertheless, despite economic interdependence, Sino-Japanese rivalry has escalated in recent years, fuelled by historical legacies and misunderstandings. The simultaneous development of military power by both countries has had an unsettling effect upon their relationship which has become more difficult to manage. Japan has been developing a naval force with a modernized Aegis capability as part of a security burden sharing arrangement with the United States which would allow it to defend critical sealanes. As Japan develops an effective naval capability for this purpose it stimulates concern in Beijing which sees in this effort a means to intervene in the Taiwan situation or, in cooperation with the US, an attempt to contain it. As China develops its military power to deter Taiwanese independence and counter an American move to come to Taiwan's defence, suspicions within Japan are similarly stimulated. China also intends to develop a naval capability to protect its oil imports from the Middle East which would threaten the security of Japan's sealanes. Naval rivalry would undermine the benefits of Sino-Japanese interdependence exacerbating existing difficulties in the relationship, rendering it more unpredictable. It would also challenge the development of East Asian regionalism and, depending on its intensity, may damage it beyond repair. This article examines the theme of Sino-Japanese rivalry within interdependence, identifying the aggravating factors as well as the conditions which could ameliorate it. Interdependence and Rivalry