Missing Bullet Holes

During World War II, the US military looked at their returning bombers to decide where to add extra armor. The planes were covered in bullet holes on the wings and tail, so the generals decided to reinforce those areas. But a statistician named Abraham Wald stopped them. He argued: "You are looking at the planes that came back. You need to put armor where the bullet holes are not—because the planes hit there didn't return."



"The Missing Bullet Holes" uses this famous story of Abraham Wald to explain "Survivorship Bias," a logical error that plagues modern business and life. We study the habits of college dropouts who became billionaires (Steve Jobs, Bill Gates) but ignore the millions of dropouts who failed. We look at successful startups and copy their culture, forgetting that failed startups often had the exact same culture.



This book teaches you how to see the "silent data"—the evidence that is missing because it didn't survive the filter process. It is a guide to critical thinking that will save you from making decisions based on incomplete maps. Learn to look for the holes in the story, not just the highlights.