Demographic, Socio-Economic, And Regional Fertility Differentials in Pakistan (Demographic Perspectives) (Report‪)‬

Pakistan, with an estimated population of 135.6 million in 1999, and annual growth rate of 2.3 percent has a rapid growth in population because of sustained high fertility which is still around 5.0 children. Using data of 7584 currently married women from a nationally representative sample survey, Pakistan Fertility and Family Planning Survey 1996-97, both bivariate and multivariate analysis has been undertaken to see the differentials in fertility levels. Age and age at marriage are the most important determinants of fertility in Pakistan. The effect of age at marriage as a predictor is the strongest and the contribution of other socioeconomic predictors does not diminish its effect. The findings have also shown that an increase in education, particularly of women, can lead to a fertility decline. Wide differentials noted in the bivariate analysis for women's education remained when adjusted for other predictors and covariate age. Even for employed women, education is an important factor for any change in reproductive behaviour. Differentials in fertility levels have also been observed by household economic status of women. Fertility levels have been found much lower among upper economic class, followed by middle and lower class women. The findings about region and place of residence indicate that the level of fertility is highest is Balochistan, followed by NWFP, Sindh and Punjab. Fertility levels were observed lower among major urban women, compared to their counterparts living in other urban and rural areas. The fertility transition has certainly started in Pakistan because variations in fertility levels have been found to some extent by urban and rural areas and in all regions of Pakistan, while the variation in decline is visible to a great extent by education level and household economic class of women. There is need to accelerate education, in particular, education for females and refocus strategies of reproductive health and family planning programme, ensuring maximum coverage and provision of services to high fertility level groups who are mostly uneducated, poor and living in rural and smaller urban towns.