Third Millennium Thinking
Creating Sense in a World of Nonsense
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- 14,99 €
Beschreibung des Verlags
*Out now: a definitive guide to thinking clearly in a world full of overwhelming information*
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In our deluge of information, it's getting harder and harder to distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical advice? How can we navigate the next uncomfortable discussion with family members, who follow completely different experts on climate?
In Third Millennium Thinking, a physicist, a psychologist, and a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks that scientists use to keep from fooling themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions. We can all borrow from these trust-building techniques that scientists have tested and developed for more than two millennia to tackle problems both big and small.
Readers will learn:
- How to gain a solid understanding of the facts that shape our modern world
- How to navigate through a multitude of possibilities and make informed choices
- How to collaborate effectively in tackling the challenges we encounter today
- And much more
Through engaging thought exercises, clear language free from technical jargon, and compelling illustrations drawn from history, everyday life, and insider stories of scientists, Third Millennium Thinking presents a fresh approach for readers to untangle the confusing and make sense of it all.
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'A model of clear thinking, and a terrific discussion of how to use logic and evidence to solve the hardest problems. This might just be the cure for what ails us.' Cass R. Sunstein, Robert Walmsley University Professor, Harvard University, and author of Decisions About Decisions
PUBLISHERS WEEKLY
In this solid if elementary primer, Nobel Prize–winning physicist Perlmutter, UC Berkeley philosopher Campbell (Reference and Consciousness), and Stanford University psychologist MacCoun (Drug War Heresies) equip lay readers with conceptual tools for assessing technical research. Covering common ways that errors creep into scientific studies, the authors note that researchers run the risk of identifying nonexistent or meaningless patterns when working with complex data. For instance, the physicists who discovered the Higgs particle took preemptive action to avoid such misreadings by assessing information from the Large Hadron Collider in two independent teams before comparing findings. To maintain a critical eye when considering complicated problems, the authors recommend adopting a "third millennium thinking" mindset that involves embracing "intellectual humility" by recognizing that "scientific evidence can provide probabilities but not absolute certainties." Discussions on the dangers of confirmation bias and drawing sweeping conclusions from isolated anecdotes are competent if familiar. More intriguing is the authors' proposal for "deliberative polling." Stemming from their concern that credulous readings of flawed data contribute to political polarization, the authors recommend that "a randomly selected ‘jury' of people drawn from the American public" solve policy issues with moderated input from experts across the political spectrum. The result is an efficient overview of methods for evaluating scientific claims.
