Between Russia and Iran: Room to Pursue American Interests in Syria - Putin's Role in Preservation of the Assad Regime, Trump and American Troop Withdrawal, Israeli Security Lobby, ISIS Terror Fight

This incisive report by a noted federal government foreign policy expert has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction - it is not a print replica, and thus it is suitable for all devices. Contents: Between Russia and Iran: Room to Pursue American Interests in Syria * 2019 U.S. Intelligence Community Worldwide Threat Assessment

President Donald Trump has underscored containing Iran’s sway as a key element in establishing a “strong and lasting footprint” in Syria as the United States moves toward bringing its Soldiers home. In pursuing this key American objective, this paper recommends that Washington take advantage of the “daylight” between Russia and Iran, and that it be American policy at all levels to work to expand it. This long-existing “daylight” was underscored in 2018 by calls in Moscow for Iran to withdraw its forces from some or all of Syria, and by Putin’s positive regard at the summit in Helsinki with President Trump for Israel’s security requirements.

Russian acquiescence to U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian-associated and other forces in Syria reinforces the conclusion that backing a dominant Iran is not one of President Vladimir Putin’s priorities. However, while he will not forcefully oppose the United States and Israel constraining Tehran, Putin will resist pressure to break totally with Iran and with the proxies Iran bankrolls and trains to fight in Syria. In addition, Russia’s leverage on Iranian military and political activities in Syria is limited.

Russia’s solution to its own dilemma of restraining Iranian behavior in the region has been one of addition and mediation rather than subtraction. Moscow dilutes Iranian influence by working with other powers, including those most antithetical to Iran. Russia’s relations with Israel are now arguably closer to a “strategic partnership” than those with Iran. Russia’s dealings with Saudi Arabia correspond more aptly to an “oil axis” than the “Shiite axis” description used by some to characterize the ties between Moscow and Tehran. Russia’s economic ties and diplomacy with Turkey and greenlighting of Turkish military action in Syria against Kurdish forces have also diluted Iranian leverage in Syria.

1. Executive Summary * 2. "A Very Good Question" * 3. Tainted Success * 4. Friction Among Allies * 5. Strategic Partners? * 6. Sanctions Depress Trade * 7. "Axis of Oil" vis-a-vis "Shiite Axis" * 8. Israeli Security Lobby * 9. Russian-American Deconfliction * 10. Addition, Not Subtraction * 11. Push-Pull with Turkey * 12. Sanctions, Strikes, JCPOA Withdrawal * 13. Implications for U.S. Policy