Assessment of the Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions: The Cases of Iran, North Korea, Myanmar, and Cuba - Factors Determining the Value and Outcome of Sanctions and Promotion of Democratic Reforms

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This study investigates what factors influence the effectiveness of economic sanctions in changing behavior of targeted states. U.S. and UN leaders often turn to economic sanctions rather than military force to achieve international political objectives, believing that sanctions are as effective as, and more humane than, military force. Yet, history has shown the sanctions are often ineffective in altering target states' agendas. This thesis explores the use of sanctions levied against Iran and North Korea, and examines their efficacy in preventing further nuclear proliferation by these two states. These case studies suggest the structure and type of sanctions have limited success driving behavior changes in target states. Other factors—such as the target states' motivation in pursuing a particular policy and features of their political systems, the sanctioning states' ability to punish targeted states' non-compliance, and the role of third-party spoilers, also known as "black knights"—play a large part in determining the value and outcome of economic sanctions. These findings are supported with a brief examination of attempts to promote democratic reforms in Myanmar and Cuba. The thesis concludes with policy implications.

I. INTRODUCTION * A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION AND KEY FINDINGS * B. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH QUESTION * C. LITERATURE REVIEW * 1. Defining Economic Sanctions * 2. Measuring the Effectiveness of Sanctions * 3. Are Sanctions Effective? * 4. Conclusion * D. POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES * E. RESEARCH DESIGN * F. THESIS OVERVIEW AND DRAFT CHAPTER OUTLINE * II. ECONOMIC SANCTIONS TO DETER NUCLEAR PROGRAMS: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS * A. INTRODUCTION * B. BACKGROUND: HISTORY OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON IRAN AND NORTH KOREA * C. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS IN IRAN AND NORTH KOREA * 1. Iran * 2. North Korea * 3. Assessment of Economic Sanctions in Iran and North Korea * D. OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING THE EFFICACY OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AT PRODUCING THE DESIRED STATE BEHAVIOR. * 1. The Motivation for the Nuclear Program * 2. Features of the Political System * 3. The Ability to Punish for Sanctions Non-compliance * 4. The Role of Sanctions Busting States: "Black Knights" * E. CONCLUSION * III. ECONOMIC SANCTIONS TO PROMOTE DEMOCRATIC REFORM: MYANMAR AND CUBA COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS * A. INTRODUCTION * B. BACKGROUND: HISTORY OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON MYANMAR AND CUBA * C. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS IN MYANMAR AND CUBA * D. FACTORS AFFECTING THE EFFICACY OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AT PRODUCING THE DESIRE STATE BEHAVIOR. * 1. The Motivation of the Non-democratic Regime * 2. The Features of the Political System * 3. The Ability to Punish for Sanctions Non-compliance * 4. Sanctions Busting States: "Black Knights" * E. CONCLUSION * IV. CONCLUSION