Russia After Putin

In 1999, after Boris Yeltsin appointed Vladimir Putin Prime Minister, the former Russian Secret Service (KGB) agent pledged to create a powerful state at home capable of projecting Russia’s influence abroad. He spoke favorably about democracy but soon indicated by his actions that political authority would be concentrated in his hands alone, although he surrounded himself with a medley of supporters: members of the security services and military—collectively known as the Siloviki—business tycoons, high-level government officials, and members of criminal organizations. The state’s resurrection—what became known as the Power Vertical—was made possible largely through surging gas and oil revenues and Putin’s tight hold over the reins of power. The revenues that they produced, in turn, expanded the urban middle class, and provided jobs for those working in Sovietera enterprises and entitlements for retirees. In return, Putin enjoyed unprecedented approval in the eyes of most Russians, therefore, after serving two terms as president, he felt comfortable passing the job off to his young assistant—Dmitry Medvedev. 

But in the winter of 2011-12, massive public demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg revealed that the nation’s urban middle class—the university education privileged cosmopolitans—was disenchanted with his rule. They were joined by a small number of communists, nationalists, and other opponents of his Power Vertical. Staunch supporters who lived in the hinterland and occupied the lower rungs of the socio-economic ladder, the provincials, were also getting restive. Even some members of Putin’s own team deserted him; for example, his former economic Czar, Alexei Kudrin, resigned rather than support the dramatic increase in the defense budget and was joined by some oligarchs and celebrities. 

This medley of opponents accused Putin of rigging the 2011 Duma elections and his own re-election in 2012. To make matters worse, it was forecasted that Russia’s hydrocarbon production would decline, while outmoded enterprises would prove incapable of surviving global competition. Henceforth, revenues would neither sustain social services nor an expanding defense budget, so both Putin’s domestic and foreign policy agenda was in peril. It was only a matter of time before his reign expired along with the Power Vertical. 

But soon after Putin began his third term, analysts claimed that predictions of his imminent demise were premature. In spite of a slippage in the polls, he remained the most popular politician in Russia, while his opponents were divided, demoralized, and leaderless. Measures he took to silence them—including restrictions on public demonstrations and the arrest of opposition leaders—convinced many middle class protestors that they had been too hasty in openly demanding his ouster. In an attempt to secure the provincials support, Putin exploited anti-Americanism sentiment that resonated among millions of Russians and portrayed his democratic detractors as agents of foreign governments.