2018 Defense Science Board Task Force on Survivable Logistics - Joint Logistics Enterprise (JLEnt) Threats from Strategic Competitors Russia and China, Protecting and Modernizing the Mobility Triad

This unique report issued in November 2018 has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. The mobility triad, which includes sealift, airlift, and prepositioned assets, is plagued by readiness issues and shortages that must be addressed in order for the United States to defeat a strategic competitor. The commercial sealift fleet that assists military logistics has been shrinking for decades and, left to current plans, the organic (i.e., government-owned) fleet will decrease 50 percent by 2033. The Civil Reserve Airlift Fleet (CRAF) is a key component of the JLEnt, and the DoD relies on it as the primary means of delivering passengers and bulk air cargo. However, the importance of both airlift and sealift are not properly war-gamed to determine the impact of highly likely adversary intervention. Accounting for attrition, A2AD threats, and risks to commercial civilian airmen and mariners requires wargaming and solutions. The current DoD prepositioning strategy does not accommodate the demands of the NDS and must be updated. The use of deception and "hiding in plain sight" by our adversaries should be considered. Opportunities exist to leverage commercial networks and vessels for DoD prepositioning.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

Competitors and adversaries have already disrupted commercial logistics information technology (IT) systems. Military and commercial logistics networks are at risk. Conflict against a strategic competitor will demand a dispersed and survivable logistics structure and robust IT systems capable of not only defending against cyber-attacks, but also safely sharing logistics information across military and commercial elements. To project the force, the DoD depends on information sharing with private industry and needs to develop reliable cyber-protected communications in conjunction with supporting policies. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have the potential to vastly enhance the DoD's logistics enterprise network. Predictive analytics, demand forecasting, production scheduling, anomaly detection, and supply chain/inventory optimization are just some of the ways these technologies can enhance logistics.