Japan-China Relations 2005-2010: Managing Between a Rock and a Hard Place: An Interpretative Essay - Rise of China, Maritime Disputes, East China Sea, Senkaku Diaoyu Islands, Yasukuni Shrine

Professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction, this study examines the development of relations among the United States, China, and Japan which will significantly shape the future of the Asia-Pacific region and the international order of the 21st century. The three countries rank first, second, and third, respectively, in gross domestic product among the world's economies. In terms of economic interdependence and mutual benefit, each has strong incentives to cooperate and to structure "win-win" outcomes. At the same time, China's reemergence as a dynamic force both within the Asia-Pacific region and beyond, perhaps with a distinct view of incentives and national interests, is a reality facing both the United States and Japan. This study looks at the structure of and the challenges inherent in the relationship between Asia's two great neighboring powers, China and Japan.

Preface * Acknowledgments * Executive Summary * Introduction * PART I: Metafactors: Past, Present, and Future in China-Japan Relations * History * Present and Future: The Rise of China and Competition for Leadership * PART II: Macro-structural Factors * Economic Relations: The Numbers Tell the Story * Geography: Neighbors Divided by Territorial and Maritime Disputes * Security Concerns * Political Values * PART III: Case Studies * Managing Issues and the Relationship * Shaping the Future, Managing the Past * Yasukuni Shrine * Food Security * Security/Confidence-building * East China Sea and Energy Development. * Senkaku Breakdown * National Fallout * Managing Issues: An Assessment * Conclusion * Implications for the United States

Between China and Japan, the past is ever-present. Notwithstanding shared cultural and historic ties, throughout the past century and going back to the Sino-Japanese war at the end of the 19th century, a bitter legacy of history—the Boxer Rebellion; the Mukden Incident and Japan's occupation of South Manchuria (1931); the Marco Polo Bridge Incident, Japan's subsequent invasion of China, and the Nanjing Massacre (1937); and the Sino-Japanese War (19371945)—has left an indelible mark on this relationship.

Nevertheless, the two countries have demonstrated the ability to put history on the back burner in order to address immediate needs. Diplomatic relations were normalized in 1972 and a Treaty of Peace and Friendship, committing the two countries to economic and political cooperation, was signed in 1978. Japan's Official Development Assistance programs and low interest yen loans contributed to the success of China's market opening reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping.

This study examines the metafactors shaping the China-Japan relationship: the rise of China, a competition for regional leadership within a shifting balance of power, and history. At the strategic level, there is intense, but quiet, political competition for the mantle of leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. With memories of history suffusing critical aspects of the relationship, managing and adjusting to China's growing influence and successfully managing relations will challenge political leadership both in Beijing and in Tokyo.