Mechanistic-Based Performance Prediction and Life Cycle Cost Analysis Tools

This study examines the development, utilization and application of performance prediction and life cycle costing for rigid pavements. Emphasis is laid on selecting an appropriate computer application that comprises mechanistic-based prediction equations and life cycle costing, for application to the Ohio Route 50 Project. A thorough literature review examining methods of collection and processing pavement performance data, development of performance prediction equations for flexible and rigid pavement systems, computer programs for rigid pavement performance prediction and life cycle cost analysis, and usage of performance prediction and life cycle costing methods by selected state highway agencies for planning and maintenance is presented. Pavespec 3.0, developed for the Federal Highway Administration, is selected, and over two hundred simulations of the program are completed, using the as-constructed pavement system data from the Ohio Route 50 Project as inputs. Observed distress data trends are used for calibration, and predictions for the service life of the Ohio Route 50 pavement system are generated. Life cycle cost analysis methods are utilized to determine the relative cost effectiveness of various joint sealing options on the Project. From the comparisons of predicted and observed distresses for the eastbound and westbound sections of the Ohio Route 50 pavement, it is established that data points spaced out over a longer period of time provide better regression curves, and subsequently, a more reliable analysis. The slopes of observed distress curves for the international roughness index, for transverse slab cracking and for spalling, are found to be many times higher than the slopes of the corresponding predicted curves obtained from Pavespec 3.0. The differences are most pronounced in the case of transverse slab cracking. Previous mechanistic analysis of this pavement system had attributed the very high cracking percentage to longer slab length. In addition, it had been inferred that an unexpected flood and various construction issues led to the premature deterioration of this pavement system. Data calibration assumes a significant role in such cases, but Pavespec 3.0 uses a linear regression method for this purpose, which is found to be inadequate. Life cycle cost analysis methods are used to examine the cost effectiveness of the ten joint sealant materials used on the Ohio Route 50 Project. Approximate rehabilitation life cycle costs are calculated using Pavespec 3.0. Compression sealants, with the exception of Techstar W050, are found to be the most cost effective sealing option, due to their lower material and installation costs, consistently higher performance, and longer replacement cycles. Advisors/Committee Members: Ioannides, Anastasios M.