Novel Coronavirus Mutation: The COVID-19 COVID-20 Apocalypse

Marcus has locked himself in his flat as the mutated Coronavirus rages, and talking heads warn him not to panic. But food is running out. His medication too, though he doesn't believe he needs it. What will he do? Will he prove himself the hero he has always believed he is? Will he confront the madness of the world?

Warning to fools: this work is entirely fictional, and as far as I am aware there is no such deadly mutation of the Coronavirus to date, although the existence of S and L strains mentioned in the story is in fact theorised by some health professionals.

Currently the WHO (World Health Organisation) estimates a mortality rate for COVID-19 of 3.4%. While it has been theorised by some that a large number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases might have been missed, potentially dropping the mortality rate as much as tenfold (i.e. 3.4% -> 0.34%), testing for the presence of antibodies in the population of Guangdong province in China suggests this is not actually the case. So 3.4% may be close to the reality. This varies for region and circumstances, and the variation in China tells us exactly why we should limit the outbreak as much as possible. In the epicentre of the outbreak, in Wuhan, where the health care system has been overwhelmed, the mortality is 5.8%, whereas elsewhere in China, where the spread has been severely restricted, it is as low as 0.7%. In other words, if our health care systems are overwhelmed it could be much more lethal, if they are not it could be much less. Restricting the spread as much as possible, or at least slowing it down, will be key to limiting the mortality rate. But, for argument’s sake, let’s assume 3.4% across the globe. Let’s also assume 25% of the global population is infected. 0.25*7.8 billion = 1.95 billion infected. With a 3.4% mortality rate we would then have 0.034*1.95 billion = 0.0663 billion = 66.3 million dead.

Governments across the globe are starting to react, some more quickly and effectively than others, and you can help by following recommended precautions. These don’t include stocking your bomb shelter with toilet paper (the nuttiness of Australians over toilet paper amazes me almost as much as it amuses me).

Encouragingly for some you are less likely to die if you are young. So far there is 0% mortality for the under 10s, 0.2% for people 10-39 years, 0.6% if you’re 40-49, 1.3% if you’re 50-59, and so it climbs through the decades to reach 14.8% for those over 80. You are more likely to die if you have underlying health conditions, including some which are very common. Cardiovascular disease patients have a mortality rate of over 10% and those with diabetes more than 7%, high blood pressure, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease increase the mortality rate to about 6%. So if you are young and healthy the risk will be much lower, but do please consider the welfare of the elderly and otherwise vulnerable populations. The lives of these people, some of whom you will find among your own family and friends, may well depend on you doing your part to limit the spread.

Also, while the global numbers at this stage may look small compared to common seasonal flu, this is largely due to containment efforts. Please don’t be complacent. This disease is not a joke.

Obviously (one hopes): If you are concerned about COVID-19 seek information from reputable sources, not a short story or conspiracy websites. You can find dedicated pages on the WHO website, which includes situation reports, updated daily.