Optimum Model for Analyzing Lifetime Profitability of Holstein Cows (Report‪)‬

ABSTRACT : This study was on the relative net income (RNI) for 18,286 Iranian Holstein cows from 799 herds, with first freshening between 1991 and 2000. Two kinds of production system, which differed mainly in milk pricing system and feed cost, were considered. Four different models adopted from the literature were examined to find the optimum model. They differed by the cost of rearing and growth after first calving and they needed different amounts of economic data at the farm level. Results showed that four measures of RNI were highly correlated (0.96) and could be used equally to measure lifetime profitability of cows. Therefore, in herds without a regular system for recording economic and management data, use of the simplest model is recommended. Multiple regression analysis revealed that RNI was affected by age at first freshening, milk yield and days of productive life (DPL), regardless of production system, and a similar breeding goal could be defined for the two systems. Multiple regression analysis of RNI showed that in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of economic value for DPL, the per day milk yield, not total lifetime milk yield, should be included in the regression model along with DPL. Regression analysis suggested that it is possible to predict RNI using information on age at first freshening along with the length of first lactation and per day milk yield with a coefficient of determination ranging from 0.44 to 0.47. (Key Words : Relative Net Income, Regression Analysis, Iranian Holstein) INTRODUCTION