Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling

This
volume deals with the pressing issue of uncertainty in archaeological modeling.
Detecting where and when uncertainty is introduced to the modeling process is
critical, as are strategies for minimizing, reconciling, or accommodating such
uncertainty. Included chapters provide unique perspectives on uncertainty in
archaeological modeling, ranging in both theoretical and methodological
orientation. The strengths and weaknesses of various identification and
mitigation techniques are discussed, in particular sensitivity analysis. The
chapters demonstrate that for archaeological modeling purposes, there is no
quick fix for uncertainty; indeed, each archaeological model requires intensive
consideration of uncertainty and specific applications for calibration and
validation. As very few such techniques have been problematized in a systematic
manner or published in the archaeological literature, this volume aims to
provide guidance and direction to other modelers in the field by distilling
some basic principles for model testing derived from insight gathered in the
case studies presented. Additionally, model applications and their attendant
uncertainties are presented from distinct spatio-temporal contexts and will
appeal to a broad range of archaeological modelers. This volume will also be of
interest to non-modeling archaeologists, as consideration of uncertainty when
interpreting the archaeological record is also a vital concern for the
development of non-formal (or implicit) models of human behavior in the past.