Asia's naval expansion: An arms race in the making‪?‬

The Asia-Pacific region is likely to be the fulcrum of international security affairs in the twenty-first century. As the region’s economies become stronger, defence budgets are rising and navies are expanding and modernising. Some aspects of this procurement drive show signs of action–reaction dynamics between peer competitors – the hallmark of an arms race. Is the Asia-Pacific on the brink of an outright naval arms race, that could entail vast expenditures, threaten regional security and severely disrupt global trade? Or can rising naval capabilities and a desire for prestige among regional powers be reconciled with economic interdependence, freedom of navigation and managed competition between great powers?

This Adelphi analyses the naval expansion of the four major Asia-Pacific powers – the US, China, India and Japan. It looks at recent and planned procurement to find examples of action–reaction behaviour, and analyses the underlying tensions and the potential for competition. It offers an insight into the size, expenditure and capability of the naval forces in each country and the role of the navy in overall military strategy; examines naval philosophies and specific security concerns, and how these will influence decision-making; and assesses how each nation’s naval strategy is evolving in response not only to global threats, but to shifts in the regional power balance.

'Till has written a timely and important work ... this work will help us understand events in Asia and be better prepared to deal with them as the twenty-first century unfolds.’

Walter F. Doran USN, (Ret.), Former Commander United States Pacific Fleet Professor

'... a superb book on the current complicated naval balance, among the USA, Japan, China, and India. All elements of naval activities in the region, which include strategy, doctrine and policy, force build-ups, and operations, are thoughtfully analysed.’

Yoji Koda, Vice Admiral JMSDF (Ret.), Former Commander in Chief, JMSDF Fleet

'Comprehensive and well-crafted ... loaded with important facts, insights and perspectives, [this book] is destined to influence discussions in all the world’s planning staffs and war colleges – and especially in China, India, Japan and the United States.’

Captain Peter M. Swartz US Navy (Ret.) Principal Research Scientist, Center for Naval Analyses, US