Migration Hump and Development. A Look at Migration Patterns in Turkey and Mexico

Migration hump refers to the short term influx in migration instilled by trade and economic policies as compared to the expected migration trend without such initiatives. The migration hump theory, coined by Martin and Taylor in 1996, articulates that trade and migration are complimentary in short or medium term and substitutes in long term. Since 1991, there is growing recognition of the fact that the poorest countries are not the sending nations. People need resources to migrate, thus, initially developmental policies such as free trade and foreign direct investment enable people to migrate, however, in a long run same policies and additional remittances from diaspora empower countries to establish infrastructure to preserve their human capital and even instil return migration. However, one model does not fit all. In case of systematic failure of developmental policies due to internal or external pressures hump can transform into plateau, which means a state of continuous ‘brain drain’. This essay attempts to explain the notion of migration hump and plateau in relation to migration and development through optimistic and pessimistic views. The discourse explains the process of positive to negative migration through the example of Turkey and continuous excessive migration process through Mexico.