Korean Unification: The Rising Costs and Impact of Sanctions - The East-West German Reunification Experience, North Korea Economic Collapse, Famine and Informal Economy, DPRK's Economic Plight

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This study seeks to address how to overcome the economic divide that separates North and South Korea should reunification transpire. The focus of this study will be centered on two aspects of the North Korean economy lagging behind South Korea. The first is the gap of development in industry, agriculture, national infrastructure, and education. The second area of focus will be the economic and governance costs that international sanctions have imposed on North Korea. International sanctions have been shown to cause the following: increased disputes; erosion of governance capacity; empowering of anti-reform leaders and factions; disempowering of civil society; increased likelihood of violence; potential humanitarian effects; and detrimental economic impacts on the country, region, and its allies. Findings show that North Korean economic policy decisions are largely responsible for the DPRK's economic plight. Since the division between North and South Korea, DPRK leadership has consistently enacted economic policy decisions that can be characterized as short-sighted. These policy decisions often ignore, or are unaware of, the long-term consequences that they will create. While short-sighted, they are consistent in an attempt to maintain self-sufficiency despite a growing sense of insecurity. Decisions to maintain a strong military industrial complex and pursue nuclear weapons have resulted in international and economic isolation.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

I. Introduction * A. Major Research Question and Findings * B. Significance of the Research Question * C. Literature Review * 1. Definition of Unification and Unification Costs * 2. Unification Scenarios * 3. The German Reunification Experience * 4. Sanctions and Inducements * D. Potential Explanations and Hypotheses * E. Research Design * F. Study Overview and Draft Chapter Outline * II. The North Korean Economy * A. Division of the Korean Peninsula * 1. North and South Divided * 2. Lasting Effects of the Korean War on the North Korean Political Economy * B. "Plan-Less" Planned Economy * C. Economic Collapse * 1. Famine and Economic Break Down * 2. Rise of the Informal Economy * III. Sanctions and North Korea * A. Why Are Sanctions Implemented? * B. When Are Sanctions Most Effective? * C. Sanctions Against North Korea and Iran * 1. Iranian Sanctions * 2. North Korean Sanctions * D. Sanctions Impact Upon North Korea * IV. Economics Analysis for Reunification * A. North/South Economic Strategies * B. East-West German Reunification Experience * C. Economic Costs for Reunification of the Peninsula * D. Conclusions * V. Conclusions

For many Koreans, unification of the North and South remains highly desirable. This was recently evidenced during the 2018 Winter Olympics with the North and South Koreans marching together under the Korean Unification Flag. The desire for unification in-part stems from a shared history, culture, language, familial ties, and oppression. However, unification of the Korean Peninsula requires that several major obstacles be overcome to ensure an orderly transition under unified rule. One central obstacle that must be overcome for peaceful unification to occur is the ever-growing economic divide between North and South Korea. While the international community has voiced their support of a peaceful unification scenario between the North and South, the economic burden would largely fall upon South Korea. Failure to bridge the economic divide could trigger famine, mass emigration, or violence to occur.