Russian Naval Activity in the Mediterranean: Responsive Shifts in French, Italian, and Spanish Perspectives and Policies - Putin and Challenges to NATO, Multilateral Security Cooperation Initiatives

This late 2018 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. NATO's southern flank has been exposed to a wide range of threats and challenges from Middle Eastern and North African instability, including terrorism, illegal trafficking, and mass migration. Against this backdrop, since 2008, Russia has increased its Mediterranean naval activity to levels not observed since the Cold War. This study investigates the extent to which the perceptions and policies of France, Italy, and Spain have shifted in response to Russia's expanded Mediterranean presence. Although its naval presence was once considered a low-priority threat, Russia's recent behavior has led to some significant changes in the perceptions and security policies of these Allies. Greater attention to this Mediterranean naval challenge has been consistent with the intensification of Russian military aggression, and these Allies increasingly share Alliance concerns about Russia's conventional military threat. However, immediate nontraditional security issues remain a more urgent priority, a circumstance that limits the extent to which these Allies are willing to regard Russia's naval presence as a threat. While both unilateral and multilateral initiatives have been steps toward improving security and stability in the Mediterranean, these Allies continue to seek the right set of measures needed to address this dynamic environment.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

I. Introduction * A. Major Research Question * B. Significance of the Research Question * C. Literature Review * D. Potential Explanations and Hypotheses * E. Research Design * F. Study Overview * II. Russia In The Mediterranean — The Pursuit Of A Permanent Presence * A. Soviets in the Mediterranean * B. Russia's Mediterranean Rise * C. Conclusion * III. France, Italy, Spain: Perceptions and Policies * A. France * B. Italy * C. Spain * D. Conclusion * IV. French, Italian, and Spanish Multilateral Security Cooperation Initiatives * A. European Union Initiatives * B. NATO Initiatives * C. Conclusion * V. Prospects and Challenges * A. Russia's Future Mediterranean Activity * B. France, Italy, and Spain * C. NATO and the EU * D. Conclusion * VI. Conclusion

Given the January 2017 Russian-Syrian agreement to grant Russia a 49-year lease for access to the Tartus Naval Base and Russia's evident intention to maintain a permanent naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean, what are the perceptions and policies of France, Italy, and Spain on this increased presence? What policy conclusions have they drawn? This study identifies changes in officially articulated perceptions and policies in these countries since 2008 and strives to distinguish developments attributable not only to Russia, but also to other factors in the Mediterranean region, including terrorism, failed states, religious fanaticism, illegal trafficking, organized crime, and migrant and refugee flows. Additionally, this study analyzes the extent to which Mediterranean security cooperation initiatives assist France, Italy, and Spain in the management of security priorities.