Second Order Thinking

Seeing consequences nobody else sees. First-order thinking is fast and shallow: What happens next? Second-order thinking is slow and deep: And then what? This book teaches you to think two moves ahead in a world obsessed with immediate results.



We analyze why smart people make terrible long-term decisions. They optimize for first-order effects and ignore second-order consequences. Politicians pass popular laws that destroy economies. CEOs boost quarterly earnings while killing long-term value. Dieters skip meals and wreck their metabolism.



We explore frameworks for second-order analysis. Ask "And then what?" repeatedly. Consider unintended consequences. Think in systems, not events. Learn from chess players who evaluate moves five steps ahead. The ability to see what others miss is the ultimate competitive advantage. Think deeper. Win bigger.