HOW TO WIN A TRADE WAR

The global economy once ran on a simple assumption: trade would keep expanding, supply chains would remain stable, and economic interdependence would make the world more prosperous—and perhaps even more peaceful. Trillions of dollars in goods crossed borders every year through a rules-based trading system that most people barely noticed because it worked so efficiently.

That era is ending.

Today, trade has become a battlefield. Tariff announcements can shake global markets overnight. Export restrictions on rare earth minerals threaten entire industries. Restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology could decide the future of artificial intelligence and military power. Governments are racing to secure supply chains, subsidize strategic industries, and reduce dependence on rivals before the next crisis arrives.

In *How to Win a Trade War*, Financial Times columnist and podcaster Soumaya Keynes and renowned trade economist Chad P. Bown explore the new age of economic conflict reshaping the modern world. The old rules of globalization are breaking down, and nations are being forced to rethink how they compete, cooperate, and survive in an increasingly fractured global economy.

Drawing on history, economics, geopolitics, and real-world policy battles, Keynes and Bown examine the hidden mechanics of modern trade warfare—from tariffs, sanctions, and export controls to subsidies, stockpiles, industrial strategy, and technological rivalry. They investigate how supply chains became weapons, why governments are pouring billions into domestic manufacturing, and what the West can learn from China’s long-term economic planning.

The book also confronts the larger questions shaping the future world order. Could economic warfare trigger military conflict? What happens if globalization splits into competing economic blocs? Can countries remain prosperous while becoming more economically defensive? And in a world where no nation can fully escape interdependence, what does “winning” a trade war actually mean?

Sharp, accessible, and deeply timely, *How to Win a Trade War* reveals how economics and national security have become inseparable. More than just a guide to tariffs and trade disputes, it is a compelling look at the struggle for power, resilience, and survival in the twenty-first-century global economy.