The Extent of Chinese Influence in Latin America: Case Studies of Chile and Mexico, Economic and Foreign Policy Changes Influenced by Domestic Agency, Growing Chinese Hegemony, Economic Compatibility

This late 2018 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This thesis asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement has influenced the Latin American economic outlook and foreign policy changes in the twenty-first century and uses Chile and Mexico as case studies. The extent of Chinese engagement is established first because it is variable by country. Economic and foreign policy changes are then examined through the lens of Chinese engagement. This research found that economic and foreign policy changes were influenced by a mixture of domestic agency and growing Chinese hegemony, with Chinese engagement and influence being commensurate with the level of economic compatibility.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

I. Introduction * A. Major Research Question * B. Significance of the Research Question * C. Research Design * D. Potential Explanations and Hypotheses * 1. Hypothesis #1: The Case for Chinese hegemony * 2. Hypothesis #2: The Case for LATAM agency * E. Structure of the Research Project * F. Literature Review * * II. A Case Study of Chinese Engagement in Chile * A. Synopsis * B. Establishing the Independent Variable: The Extent of Chinese Engagement in Chile * C. Analyzing the Dependent Variable: Change Due to China * 1. Changes in the Economic Outlook * 2. Changes in the Foreign Policy * D. Agency vs. Hegemony * 1. Chinese Hegemony: Hypothesis #1 * 2. Chilean Agency: Hypothesis #2 * III. A Case Study of Chinese Engagement In Mexico * A. Synopsis * B. Establishing the Independent Variable: The Extent of Chinese Engagement in Mexico * C. Analyzing the Dependent Variable: Change Due to China * 1. Changes in the Economic Outlook * 2. Changes in the Foreign Policy * D. Agency vs. Hegemony * 1. Mexican Agency: Hypothesis #2 * 2. Chinese Hegemony: Hypothesis #1 * IV. Conclusion * A. Implications * B. Areas for Future Research

The 2018 National Defense Strategy asserts that "the central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition by… revisionist powers." The revisionist powers, namely China and Russia, "want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model—gaining veto authority over other nations' economic, diplomatic, and security decisions." With respect to China, the National Defense Strategy says that it "is leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce neighboring countries to reorder the Indo-Pacific region to their advantage… that seeks Indo-Pacific regional hegemony in the near-term and displacement of the United States to achieve global preeminence in the future." Latin America is beyond the traditional Indo-Pacific region, but has nonetheless felt the impact of China's rise. In fact, Chinese engagement in LATAM increased substantially in the twenty-first century. With respect to the National Defense Strategy, the research question is significant because it can help identify if China's actions to alter the international order spans the entirety of the Pacific and includes revising LATAM in accordance with its authoritarian model. The research project asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement influenced the economic outlook and foreign policy of LATAM. In doing so, this research project fills a void in the academic literature which largely analyzes one particular aspect of the China-LATAM relationship, and does not adequately address the degree of Chinese influence.