The Signal and the Noise The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

    • $149.00
    • $149.00

Descripción editorial

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have...

GÉNERO
Política y actualidad
PUBLICADO
2012
27 de septiembre
IDIOMA
EN
Inglés
EXTENSIÓN
544
Páginas
EDITORIAL
Penguin Publishing Group
VENDEDOR
PENGUIN GROUP USA, INC.
TAMAÑO
13.7
MB
La señal y el ruido La señal y el ruido
2014
On the Edge On the Edge
2024
O sinal e o ruído O sinal e o ruído
2013
Sygnał i szum. Sztuka prognozowania w erze technologii Sygnał i szum. Sztuka prognozowania w erze technologii
2014
The Data Detective The Data Detective
2021
The Theory That Would Not Die The Theory That Would Not Die
2011
Nudge Nudge
2021
Fooled by Randomness Fooled by Randomness
2005
The Sense of Style The Sense of Style
2014
How to Decide How to Decide
2020