Evolving Obstacles to a European Union Nuclear Deterrent: History of European Security After World War II Devastation, Anti-Nuclear Movement, U.S. Loss of Credibility and President Trump, NATO Role

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This study evaluates the evolving obstacles to the development of a European Union (EU) nuclear deterrent. Some EU officials, prominent analysts, and political leaders in EU nations have expressed interest in exploring such a capability. The incentives for pursuing an EU nuclear deterrent include (1) increased tensions with nuclear-armed powers in Eurasia, especially Russia, China, and North Korea; (2) the perceived decline in U.S. political credibility in Europe; and (3) the EU's substantial economic status, industrial capacity, and technical expertise. The EU nations may, however, continue to rely on the U.S. nuclear protection provided via NATO, owing to the huge barriers to the construction of an EU nuclear deterrent. These barriers include (1) doubts about the strategic credibility of the EU's striving to acquire this capability; (2) the lack of mutual confidence among EU members concerning political reliability, methods of decision-making, and the formulation and implementation of a strategy for nuclear deterrence and crisis management; and (3) the growing anti-nuclear movements within EU member nations. The study concludes that the organization of an EU nuclear deterrent, while economically and technically feasible, remains improbable for political reasons in the foreseeable future.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

I. Introduction * A. Major Research Question * B. Significance of the Research Question * C. Literature Review * 1. Background of European Security following the Second World War: Institutional Evolution and New Weapons * 2. History of a European Nuclear Deterrent * D. Potential Explanations And Hypotheses * E. Research Design * F. Study Overview * II. European Security After World War II Devastation * A. Development of the U.S.-NATO Nuclear Umbrella * B. European Integration Movement and Multinational Nuclear Deterrent Debate * C. Rise of the Anti-Nuclear Movement In Europe * D. Conclusion * III. Catalysts to an EU Nuclear Deterrent * A. Rising Aggression from the East * B. The U.S. Loss of Credibility * C. European Union Members' Financial and Technological Capacity * IV. Obstacles in 2018 to an EU Nuclear Deterrent * A. Technological and Strategic Credibility of French and British Arsenals * B. The European Union's Limited Political Capacity to Fulfill This Role * C. British Referendum to Leave the European Union * D. Lack of Mutual Confidence Among EU Member States * 1. World War II Emotional Remnants and the Effects on Political Reliability * 2. Methods of Decision-Making * 3. Conflicting International and National Values * E. Growing Anti-Nuclear Movements In Europe * 1. Austria * 2. Germany * 3. Ireland * 4. Sweden * V. Possible Repercussions of an EU Nuclear Deterrent * A. The Breaking of a Treaty * 1. Independent National Nuclear Deterrents * 2. Joint EU Nuclear Deterrent * B. Defense or Provocation? * C. Thinking the Unthinkable * D. Conclusion * VI. Conclusion

Chapter V analyzes the possible repercussions of the establishment of an EU nuclear deterrent. Depending on the path chosen, the development of a multinational nuclear deterrent could undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), prompting some countries to invest in nuclear weapons (for example, Iran) and antagonize already defensive and aggressive nations such as Russia and North Korea. Secondly, the deterrent may be insufficient to serve its intended purpose, resulting in a weakened and vulnerable Western Europe. The ripple effects, such as damage to the NPT and possible international turmoil, might prove to be the ultimate obstacle to an EU nuclear deterrent.