How Does the Future of the NATO Look Like in the New Century‪?‬

After the end of the Soviet Communism, the NATO was described by
many experts as a dying institution. Kenneth Waltz, an American
political scientist judged the NATO in 1990 as a “disappearing thing”
and he forecasted, that it’s only a question of time until this institution
will become insignificant.1 The big common enemy was missing and the
probability of a new rising threat for western civilization was about zero.
The need of article V, including its security guarantees seemed to be
useless and therewith the “raison d’être” of the biggest multilateral
intergovernmental security community was lost. Critics see the NATO
as a relic from the Cold War and suspect the United States of America
to utilize this institution in order to enlarge and intensify their worldwide
sphere of influence.2 The only fait accompli is the fact that NATO has
changed. To underline this statement General Secretary Robertson was
wearing a t-shirt, with the slogan “This ain’t your daddy’s NATO”, at the
NATO summit 2003 in Colorado Springs.3 The question accrues what
the NATO exactly is in our days and if the changes made, since 1990
are significant enough to guarantee the survival of the biggest
multilateral military alliance? The following essay analyzes what the
NATO is and investigates the different future scenarios of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization.