Future Oil Supplies (Forum‪)‬

As Robert L. Hirsch, Roger H. Bezdek, and Robert M. Wendling themselves point out, their "Peaking Oil Production: Sooner Rather Than Later?" (Issues, Spring 2005) repeats an often-heard warning. Who knows, maybe they are right this time. Right or wrong, however, the best reasons for getting off the oil roller-coaster in the 21st century have little or nothing to do with geology. Rather, national security and global warming have everything to do with the need to act, and the time is now. The national security problem, as several bipartisan expert groups have recently pointed out, is rooted in the growth of terrorist activity. Terrorist attack at any point in the oil production and delivery system can cause major economic and political disruption. Such disruptions have been a concern for years, of course, because oil reserves are concentrated in the Middle East. What's new and dangerous is that terrorists will make good on the threat. Unlike the members of OPEC, terrorist groups have little or no economic incentive to keep oil revenues flowing.