Nationalism or Cost-Benefit Analysis in Perception

This book explores the changes in the degree of toughness of China’s foreign policy choices in bilateral international disputes over the period from 1992 to 2022. Chinese popular nationalism, due to its considerable social mobilization capacity, may have the potential to influence the Chinese government's foreign policy choices through a bottom-up approach, especially in the context of the Chinese government's increasing reliance on nationalism for its regime legitimacy. The author establishes an analytical framework for China’s foreign policy choices in bilateral disputes, emphasising the influence of three factors: China’s perception of the importance of the bilateral relations, its perception of the priority of the interests involved in the dispute, and its perception of the severity of the dispute. Through a series of case studies, the author demonstrates that the influence of Chinese popular nationalism on government policy is limited. This book offers fascinating insights for policymakers, journalists and scholars.

Weijun Xu is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of Public Policy, South China University of Technology. He received his Ph. D. from the University of Cambridge in 2024. His research interests include East Asian international relations, nationalism, Chinese diplomacy, and Sino-US relations.