A Social Structure of Accumulation for Long Wave Upswing in Australia‪?‬

In recent years there has been a tendency in the popular press, in political debate and in some scholarly papers to talk of an 'Australian economic miracle' or 'the booming Australian economy'. So common are these recitations that they have become embedded in the popular conscience. Some contributors to this special issue of the Journal of Australian Political Economy implicitly endorse this view of a 'miracle economy'; often using GDP growth rather than GDP per capita growth as the crucial proxy. Much is made of the contribution of changes in policy, renewed enterprise, and the "resources boom" to this apparently buoyant state of affairs. In this light, it is encouraging to see some scholars critically evaluating these pronouncements of a "boom". Tom Bramble (2004), for instance, in an earlier article from this journal, rightly seeks to balance the debate by discussing some of the major contradictory processes impinging on this so-called miracle economy. Special emphasis is given to the contradictions of labour force polarisation, lacklustre performance of the global economy, household debt and potential speculative collapse, external account problems, plus ideological contradictions. This current article also seeks to demystify this "miraculous and booming economy", through an empirico-institutional analysis of the long-term performance of the Australian economy within a global setting. Special reference is given to whether Australia has been going through long wave upswing or downswing over recent decades, and whether suitable social structures of accumulation are currently in place to propel sustainable growth in the long-term. The article has three main sections. The first sets out the basic theory underlying social structures of accumulation. Next the contours of Australia's institutional structure and dynamics are discussed, especially as they relate to the process of capital accumulation, capital-labour relations, capital-state interactions and industry-finance linkages. The third section examines in some detail the main performance measures over the past few decades, set in a broader historical context of long-term motion. Indicators such as per capita growth, productivity, investment and rate of profit are examined; as well as broader measures such as trust and genuine progress. The conclusion summarises and outlines the likely prognosis of SSA-long wave motion into the future.