Between Russia and the West: Security Policy Balancing by Belarus Since 1991 - Belarus Under the USSR, Lukashenko's Impact, Search for Dialogue with Putin, From the Crimean Crisis to the Present

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. This study examines the involvement of Belarus in European and regional security organizations with respect to its relationship to the Russian Federation and the West. Modern Belarus's geopolitical situation, history, relatively stable government, and need to seek its own development path makes this case study distinct in terms of European security. To analyze Belarus's shifting behavior, a comparative case study approach is used. Special attention is given to Belarus's history and the evolution of its relations between the East and the West, with an emphasis on the country's domestic events, cooperation with regional security organizations, and changes in its foreign policy. The research demonstrates that, despite its turbulent history and uneasy process of self-determination, modern Belarus's foreign policy and national security posture are based on a commitment to neutrality and peacemaking efforts within Europe. Ties with Russia and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's Soviet heritage are two major constraints preventing Belarus from developing closer relationships with Western security organizations and the United States. However, current trends show that Minsk is becoming more open to developing relations with the West, while maintaining prudent relations with Russia, thus possibly serving as a future bridge between East and West within Europe.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

I. Introduction * A. Background * B. Major Research Question * C. Significance of the Research Question * D. Literature Review * E. Potential Explanations And Hypotheses * F. Research Design * G. Thesis Overview * II. Belarus Before Lukashenko: A Brief Overview * A. Belarus's Origins * B. Belarus Under The USSR * C. Conclusion * III. Belarus and the East * A. The End of the Cold War and the End of the Warsaw Pact * B. The CIS * C. The Brief Period of Belarus's Westernization In 1991-1994 * D. Belarus's Uneasy Re-Integration With Russia Under Lukashenko * E. Belarus's National Security * F. Belarus's Involvement With The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) * G. Conclusion * IV. Belarus and the West * A. Belarus and the OSCE * B. Belarus and NATO * C. Belarus and the EU * D. Conclusion * V. Conclusion * A. Belarusian Policy Motivations And Trends * B. Lukashenko's Impact on Belarus's Domestic and International Policies Since 1994 * 1. Movement towards the East * 2. Search for Dialogue with Putin in 2001-06 * 3. Economic Wars 2007-2014 * 4. The Period of after the Crimean Crisis to the Present * C. Belarus's Security Posture: Implications for the United States and the West * D. What Is Next for Belarus?