Projecting the U.S. Gender Wage Gap 2000-40‪.‬

Introduction There is extensive literature examining the size, determinants, and trend over time in the gender wage gap in the United States. (1) The historical pattern is well established--after near stability through the 1960s and 1970s, the gender wage gap closed substantially during the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper examines whether this trend will continue. With recent college enrollment rates higher for women than men and rapid increases in levels of female labor market experience, prospects appear promising. Furthermore, the pay gap is smaller for the current younger age groups than the older age groups, raising the possibility that this smaller gap may spread to older groups as the young cohorts age. On the other hand, Blau and Kahn [2000] note that convergence appears to have stalled in the late 1990s. Furthermore, future aging of the workforce could impede further female progress.