Preparing for Upheaval in North Korea: Assuming North Korean Regime Collapse - Kim Family, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Songbun System, Juche Ideology, Pyongyang

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION * B. IMPORTANCE * C. PROBLEM AND HYPHOTHESIS * D. LITERATURE REVIEW * 1. Conceptualizing DDR * 2. Lessons Learned * 3. Applicability to North Korea * E. METHODS AND SOURCES * F. THESIS OVERVIEW * CHAPTER II - NORTH KOREAN ATTITUDE TOWARD UPHEAVAL * A. INTRODUCTION * B. INSIDE NORTH KOREA * 1. Foundation of the Social Control System * a. Recent Changes in the Social Control System * 2. Songbun System * a. Recent Changes in the Songbun System * 3. Juche Ideology * a. Recent Changes in Ideology * 4. A Garrison State * a. The Status of The Korean People's Army * b. Capabilities * c. Reserve Forces * 5. Implications * C. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER III - NORTH KOREAN REGIME COLLAPSE * A. INTRODUCTION * B. REGIME COLLAPSE * 1. Defining the Status of Regime Collapse * 2. Scenarios and Assumptions * a. Critical Uncertainties * b. First Scenario * c. Second Scenario * d. Third Scenario * e. Fourth Scenario * 3. Common Traits in All Scenarios * C. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER IV - POLICY RECOMENDATIONS * A. INTRODUCTION * B. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS * 1. Policy Recommendations for the First Scenario * 2. Policy Recommendations for the Second Scenario * 3. Policy Recommendations for the Third Scenario * 4. Policy Recommendations for the Fourth Scenario * C. POLICY RECOMMENDATION EFFECTIVE IN ALL SCENARIOS * D. CONCLUSION * LIST OF REFERENCES

This thesis will attempt to provide the optimal policy prescription for the Republic of Korea (ROK) Army on how to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate (DDR) the North Korean people in the case of their regime collapse. It is important to know how the likelihood of environment in which post-conflict reconstruction efforts will be implemented. The viability of any contingency plan should be assessed, based on an assumption about the environment being in probable upheaval. However, little analysis of the viability of the contingency plan, including the DDR program, has been undertaken in the context of North Korean regime collapse. Especially, the research about expectations and assumptions related to the possible North Korean attitude and probable post-regime collapse environment has been rare. The contingency planning, thus, needs further research and empirical supporting data, which can enhance its viability in practice. Given this perspective, this thesis attempts to predict the North Korean people's possible attitude in their upheaval, based on analysis about the current regime's control system and recent changes. This thesis also assumes different scenarios in which DDR would be implemented to reconstruct a post-conflict society, by differentiating critical uncertainties in each case.