A model of innovation

Building on the author’s ‘Pace Change’, this book presents an empirically-grounded high productivity account of world population growth from c. 200,000 BCE (before the common era) to 2100 CE (in the common era) using a simple endogenous stochastic model based on a constant underlying rate of innovation.

The statistically-tested model predicts a world population of 9.9 billion in 2050 CE and 16.9 billion in 2100 CE, against the United Nations medium variant 2012 projection of 9.6 billion for 2050 CE and 10.9 billion for 2100 CE.

Includes a link to a published version of the spreadsheet used to implement the model.

This is the flowing text edition. A fixed page landscape edition and a fixed page portrait edition are also available.