American Foreign Policy Council Presents ... Sino-Indian Relations: A Troubled History, An Uncertain Future (Spotlight‪)‬

Few now dispute that the magnificent rise of China and India has fundamentally transformed the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. In the United States, their emergence has prompted interest in the two Asian giants, home to more than a third of the world's population, with a focus on how their geopolitical influence will affect the United States. The Washington foreign policy community has framed China as a challenge and a competitor, while India is increasingly portrayed as an opportunity and an ally. Yet while the heightened focus on Sino-US and Indo-US relations is welcome, few US analysts have bothered to examine the third, and perhaps most volatile, leg of this equation: the Sino-Indian relationship. History is littered with examples of rising powers upending the status quo and challenging the established order. Strategic thinkers in the United States have mulled the potential of conflict with China since the moment the Soviet Union collapsed. However, it is at least as likely that if superpower conflict does emerge in the 21st century, it will be between China and India. This scenario is by no means guaranteed, and perhaps not even probable. Formal relations are cordial. However, unlike the United States and China, the two do not have the luxury of a vast ocean to separate them. Rather, they share a long and, more importantly, contested border and a close proximity that can magnify grievances, encourage friction, and perpetuate a zero-sum mentality. It is therefore incumbent upon the United States to seek a greater understanding of Sino-Indian relations, particularly of the issues that divide them and the historical context that underpins their interactions.