One of Foreign Policy's "21 Books to Read in 2012"
A Publishers Weekly Top 10 Business Book
“The best book on global economic trends I’ve read in a while.”—Fareed Zakaria, CNN GPS
To identify the economic stars of the future we should abandon the habit of extrapolating from the recent past and lumping wildly diverse countries together. We need to remember that sustained economic success is a rare phenomenon. After years of rapid growth, the most celebrated emerging markets—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—are about to slow down. Which countries will rise to challenge them? In his best-selling book, writer and investor Ruchir Sharma identifies which countries are most likely to leap ahead and why, drawing insights from time spent on the ground and detailed demographic, political, and economic analysis.
With a new chapter on America’s future economic prospects, Breakout Nations offers a captivating picture of the shifting balance of global economic power among emerging nations and the West.
Sharma, the head of Morgan Stanley's Emerging Markets division, takes readers on a lively tour across five continents as he explores the factors behind the next economic powerhouses. Analyzing a smorgasbord of indicators from income levels, to the number of billionaires in a country, to the pronouncements of local politicians Sharma stresses that the nations poised to be the next big thing in the global marketplace are not the just usual suspects like China, Russia, and India. Instead, they are smaller countries that are making quiet, unheralded progress before the rest of the world catches on. The Czech Republic and Poland benefit from low levels of debt, strong political systems, and conservative businesses communities, as does South Korea, a perennial innovator. Turkey gets a nod for its efforts to bring its poorer areas in line with wealthier urban enclaves, and others like Indonesia and Nigeria have notable potential. But Sharma also offers cautionary advice, courtesy of former Bank of England adviser Charles Goodhart's law: "once an economic indicator gets too popular, it loses its predictive value." Accessible to newbies and revelatory for veterans, Sharma's observations upend conventional wisdom regarding what it takes to succeed in the relentlessly competitive global marketplace. Photos & maps.
Interesting book, however, he has been proved wrong on countries like Egypt and his position on austerity (Kenneth R has been incorrect). It is surprising that he does not mention Panama, which has been growing at a rate higher than 7%. When it comes to the next boom, innovation, he does not even mention Israel!!! Which is the only country that can brag of being close to Silicon Valley.