Europe’s demographic development and the impact on the workforce

Though EU commissar Špidla speaks, in 2006, about a “demographic time bomb” which needs to be disarmed1, a study suggests that back in 2003 52 percent of the German population has not even heard about the term “demographic change.” Even if these figures are a bit outdated they show that discussion concerning this topic continues between experts and politicians and has been a long-time taking to reach the broader populace. Nowadays, word has spread. The topic has become more pressing on political agendas, national and international summits. In the 2007 Adecco Fitness Survey, European companies invision the demographic change as the second biggest business challenge, following Globalization. The UN has been pressing the issue of ageing populations since the 1940s and forecasts that the number of people over 60 years old will have tripled by 2050. For the first time in history, this figure will exceed that of the number of children (0 – 14 years). However, these aggregated figures do not show that these developments have taken place differently across the globe. Europe is experiencing the most rapid ageing, and the number of old people is already higher than the number of young people. This may explain why demographic change now has such a high priority in EU policies. Nico van Nimwegen, deputy director of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute notes that the ageing problem is the dominant challenge the EU is facing. He sees the implications of this trend and the need for action and policy change in various areas. Employment has been recognized as one of these target areas. The ageing of the population has important repercussions on the available labor force and thus impacts economic prospects as a whole.
This paper will analyze demographic changes and their impacts on the labor markets. It will begin with an overview of Europe’s demographic development and its driving forces. The subsequent impacts on the labor force will then be discussed followed by an overview of different proposed policy options and how they could help circumvent the consequences of demographic change. Here the goal shall not be to detail single policy measures, but to unveil areas in which policy action needs to be considered. Particular policies have to be chosen carefully by each country in accordance to its individual situation and institutional framework. Finally, the findings of this paper will be reviewed and a final conclusion will be given.