Looking Beyond the Horizon

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as the four
examined in Looking Beyond the Horizon, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental
problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for
its livelihood.

The risks of climate change to agriculture cannot be eff ectively dealt with—and the opportunities cannot be
eff ectively exploited—without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing
the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and investing in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm
improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis;
consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts; and investments in
both human and physical capital. The diverse experiences of Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this book, show that it is possible to develop a plan to
meet these objectives—one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick
to develop.

The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defi ned by
its emphasis on “win-win” or “no regrets” solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for the
farmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future
climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit
greenhouse gas emissions—also known as “climate-smart agriculture.”

Looking Beyond the Horizon draws on the experiences of applying this approach to these four nations in
Eastern Europe and Central Asia with the goal of helping each country mainstream climate change
adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The book also highlights the projected
impacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through forecast variations in temperature and
rainfall patterns, which are crucial to farming, and off ers a map for navigating the risks and realizing
the opportunities. Finally, a detailed e xplanation of the approach, as well as lessons learned from its
implementation, is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of
Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world.