Lost in a Gallup
Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
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This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.
"W. Joseph Campbell's work always opens my eyes, challenging assumptions the world has turned into facts. Whenever I get a chance to read Campbell's work, I seize it."—Jake Tapper, CNN anchor
Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024.
As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
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Campbell (Getting It Wrong), a professor of communication at American University, offers a lively tour through past polling failures of American presidential elections, updated since its original 2020 publication with a new chapter on the that year's election, which was polling's worst performance in 40 years. Polls at the time were near unanimous in overestimating Joe Biden's performance against incumbent Donald Trump, predicting an eight-to-12-point lead for the Democrat, but Biden won by a much smaller margin. Campbell relates the ensuing drama with panache ("For a time, Election Night unspooled as a strange replay of 2016") while neatly evaluating a dizzying number of theories for the misfire (including polls' failure to adjust sample data for respondents who were unlikely to vote, journalists' embrace of the polls over reporting, the number of late-deciding voters, dishonest answers from respondents, sample errors, and fewer responses from Republicans). Despite the surfeit of ways polling can be rendered useless and inaccurate (which is likewise attested to in the book's previously published sections on historical polling mishaps), Campbell makes a strong case for the continued civic value of polling, arguing for instance that polls gin up public interest during election season. The result is an entertaining and informative peek into a recently much-maligned aspect of U.S. elections.
