Paper Tiger: A Skeptical Appraisal of China's Military Might‪.‬

OF ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTIES of the Asian security environment, none is more compelling than that surrounding the future role and status of the People's Republic of China (PRC). To some observers, the combination of rapid economic growth and military modernization signals Beijing's intention to establish itself as a regional hegemon. Others acknowledge that China can "spoil" regional stability, but, citing potential economic and political problems, numerous constraints on military modernization, the growing national strength of the other regional powers, and China's interest in maintaining regional stability, they tend to discount the rise of a China threat. Clearly, China is an emerging great power. It already plays a defining role in the affairs of the Asia Pacific region. In the future, Chinese power and influence are certain to grow. This in turn will lead to the discovery of new and expanded Chinese interests and, as a stronger China pursues them, there is bound to be some disruption of the political, economic, and military status quo. In this sense, China obviously poses a challenge to East Asian security. The military dimension, however, is far less clear. Even today, if Beijing were willing to pay the price, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) could seriously damage potential adversaries in limited campaigns. But this does not mean that China will inevitably choose to use the military instrument in pursuit of its foreign policy goals.