PETER HO'S MENAGERIE

Peter Ho, former head of Singapore's Civil Service, has during his decades of public service brought to bear a deep appreciation of futures thinking, complexity, and strategic surprise to multiple aspects of governance and security. This volume, presented to Peter on the occasion of his 70th birthday, brings together contributions from his friends (from Singapore and beyond) and collaborators over many years of work covering several fields. The contributions touch on areas such as foresight, 'wicked problems', 'black swans', challenges to governance, Artificial Intelligence, and intelligence matters. The foreword is written by Teo Chee Hean, Singapore's Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security, and a longstanding friend of Peter. Contents: Foreword (Teo Chee Hean) Prefatory Appreciation (Lui Pao Chuen) Introduction (Shashi Jayakumar, Adrian Kuah, Jeanette Kwek, Vernie Oliveiro) About the Editors About the Contributors Tanks in Factories: Models for Defence R&D and Technology Ecosystems (Isaac Ben-Israel) The Future Systems Directorate and Peter Ho's Trail of Transformation (Jimmy Khoo) Peter and the Defence Technology Ecosystem (Tan Peng Yam) Peter Ho and the Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Story (Patrick Nathan) Elephants in Rooms: Calling Attention to Elephants (Huw Price) Defanging the Future (David Omand) The Black Elephant in the Room (John Scarlett) Futures in Crystal: Policy Skills for the 21st Century (Aaron Maniam) The Politics of Anticipation and Future Thinking (Chan Heng Chee) Peter Ho: One American's Personal Appreciation (Linton Wells II) The Scenario Practitioner's Craft and the Janus Dilemma (Cho-Oon Khong) Managing Inherent Uncertainty (David Snowden) What is in it for Singapore? (Jan W Vasbinder) Peter Ho and the Complexity of Cities (Khoo Teng Chye) Peter Ho: The Great Navigator of Singapore (Peter Schwartz) Governing with Complexity (Luís M A Bettencourt) Gods in Silicon: Celebrating Peter Ho (and his Scenario Mindset) (Jeremy B Bentham) Will Science Save or Destroy Us? (Martin Rees) The Mandarin, the Market and the Machine (Richard Danzig) Preparedness in Times of ChatGPT (Helga Nowotny) Readership: For government officials/civil servants (especially those interested in strategic foresight, intelligence, and complexity), academia, graduate students, industry professionals (corporate strategists/consultants/risk managers), international organizations (e.g. UN, World Bank)/NGOs, and the general reader interested in the dynamics of the Singapore success story. Dr Shashi Jayakumar is Executive Director and Founder of SJK Geostrategic Advisory Pte Ltd, a geopolitical risk consultancy firm. Previously, he was Head of the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Dr Jayakumar also worked in the Administrative Service of Singapore's Government for several years, with most of this time spent in the security field (in the Ministry of Defence).Jeanette Kwek is the Head of the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF), which focuses on thinking systematically about emerging issues and trends that shape Singapore's future. A career civil servant, Jeanette has served in various roles connecting foresight and geopolitics.Dr Adrian W J Kuah is the founding director of the NUS Futures Office, a think tank located in the Office of the President of the National University of Singapore (NUS). The NUS Futures Office scans the horizon for emerging trends and assesses their implications for higher education in general, and NUS in particular. Dr Kuah is an alumnus of the Centre for Strategic Futures. 'Peter Ho and I were in the 3rd batch of SAF Scholars. We went up to Cambridge together in 1973. Both of us did engineering. We were good friends from university days. We were both active in the Cambridge University Malaysia Singapore Association (CUMSA). Back in the SAF after graduation, Peter, together with Teo Chee Hean, joined the Navy....