Plagues and Their Aftermath
How Societies Recover from Pandemics
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- $10.99
Publisher Description
"Jenkins has organized his book around themes, and as he explores them, he leads the reader back and forth through history, pointing out parallels in humankind’s responses to different epidemics...thoroughly researched and cogently written..." -- New York Journal of Books
A look at the long history of epidemics and pandemics provides an enthralling account of what we can expect of a post-COVID world
In a concise, authoritative, and gripping telling, Brian Michael Jenkins — one of our leading authorities on national security and an advisor to governments, presidents and CEOs — provides a masterly account of what kind of future the planet might be facing ... by looking at the world's long history of epidemics and discerning what was common about their aftermath.
From a plague in Athens during the Peloponnesian War in 430 BCE, to another in 540 that wiped out half the population of the Roman empire, down through the Black Death in the Middle Ages and on through the 1918 flu epidemic (which killed between 50 and 100 million people) and this century's deadly SARS outbreak, plagues have been a much more relentless fact of life than many realize.
The legacy of epidemics, Jenkins observes, is not only one of lives lost but of devastated economies and social disorder, all of which have severe political repercussions.
Thus, each chapter of Plagues and Their Aftermath draws on those historical precursors to focus on one particular aspect of their aftermath: What happens to political systems? What happens in the area of crime and terrorism? Do wars happen? What are the effects on cultures? What was the impact of widespread fear and public hysteria, of increased suspicion and scapegoating, of the spread of rumors and conspiracy theories?
Jenkins' sobering analysis is riveting and thought-provoking reading for general readers and specialists alike, and throws welcome light into what many fear is a dark future.
PUBLISHERS WEEKLY
Counterterrorism expert Jenkins (The Long Shadow of 9/11) offers a succinct review of the "myriad effects of past pandemics" to forecast how Covid-19 will transform society. Drawing on histories of the Black Death, cholera, the 1918 Spanish flu, AIDS, and more, Jenkins examines the political, economic, social, and national security consequences of epidemics. He estimates that the worldwide death toll from Covid-19 will reach "somewhere between 12 and 24 million, putting at seventh place on the list of modern calamities"; posits that some companies will "re-shore" manufacturing jobs in their native countries, slowing the economic recovery in less-developed parts of the world; cites the 1917 Russian Revolution (which followed a series of cholera outbreaks) and the 1986 ouster of Haiti's Jean-Claude Chevalier (amid the AIDS crisis) as examples of how epidemics foster political instability; and suggests that the disproportionate impact of cholera on the poor contributed to the radicalization of anarchist revolutionaries in 19th-century Europe. In some cases, Jenkins's interpretations, including that the Black Death "in the long run actually improved the situation of those lower on the economic scale," are debatable, and contradict claims he makes elsewhere in the book. Still, this is an accessible and well-informed assessment of what comes next.
