Probably Overthinking It Probably Overthinking It

Probably Overthinking It

How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions

    • $28.99
    • $28.99

Publisher Description

An essential guide to the ways data can improve decision making.
 
Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctor’s office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that people have an innate ability both to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect medical prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which are which.
 
Probably Overthinking It uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political movements, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls—like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpson’s paradox—and shines a light on what we learn when we interpret data correctly, and what goes wrong when we don’t. Using data visualizations instead of equations, he builds understanding from the basics to help you recognize errors, whether in your own thinking or in media reports. Even if you have never studied statistics—or if you have and forgot everything you learned—this book will offer new insight into the methods and measurements that help us understand the world.

GENRE
Science & Nature
RELEASED
2023
December 6
LANGUAGE
EN
English
LENGTH
258
Pages
PUBLISHER
The University of Chicago Press
SELLER
OpenRoad Integrated Media, LLC
SIZE
4.6
MB
Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data
2013
The Art of Statistics The Art of Statistics
2019
The Math of Life and Death The Math of Life and Death
2020
Statistics Done Wrong Statistics Done Wrong
2015
How to Lie with Statistics How to Lie with Statistics
2010
Statistics Statistics
2008
Think Stats Think Stats
2014
Modeling and Simulation in Python Modeling and Simulation in Python
2023
Think Bayes Think Bayes
2021
Think Java Think Java
2019
Think Data Structures Think Data Structures
2017
Python for Software Design Python for Software Design
2009
Beautiful, Simple, Exact, Crazy Beautiful, Simple, Exact, Crazy
2015
Moral Capitalism Moral Capitalism
2018
The Logic of Miracles The Logic of Miracles
2018
Group Theory in the Bedroom, and Other Mathematical Diversions Group Theory in the Bedroom, and Other Mathematical Diversions
2008
Conceptualizing Capitalism Conceptualizing Capitalism
2015
How Math Explains the World How Math Explains the World
2009