Prophecy
Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI
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- 사전 주문
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- 예상 출시일 2026년 4월 21일
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- US$14.99
출판사 설명
From an award-winning University of Oxford professor comes a brilliant, urgent new look at prophecies—the predictions that determine our lives, from our personal finances and the quality of our healthcare to the news and social media we consume and the products foisted upon us.
Today’s computer scientists play the same role as the oracles of the ancient world and the astrologers of the Middle Ages. Modern predictions not only advise on war, crop output, and marriages, but algorithms and statisticians also now determine whether we can get a loan, a job, an apartment, or an organ transplant. And when we cede ground to these predictions, we lose control of our own lives.
In this powerful, refreshing new look at the many ways prediction shapes our everyday lives, University of Oxford professor Carissa Véliz explains how putting too much stock in others’ predictions makes us vulnerable to charlatans, con artists, dubious technology, and self-deception. Examining a wide range of subjects both personal and societal, including medicine, climate, technology, society, and others, Véliz uncovers a number of insights: predictions about humans tend to be self-fulfilling; more data doesn’t guarantee better outcomes; AI is more likely to increase risk than decrease it; and a free and robust society requires not more prediction, but better preparation.
Véliz argues in this incisive and bracingly original book that the main promise of prediction is not knowledge of the future, but rather power over others. Prophecy is an invitation to defy those orders and live life on our own terms.
PUBLISHERS WEEKLY
Today's algorithmically generated "predictive" decisions, from loan approvals to missile strikes, are, despite their scientific veneer, no less expressions of cultural and personal desires than the "prophecies" of earlier eras, ethicist Véliz (Privacy Is Power) argues in this captivating study. Surveying the long history of prediction, from the "oracle bones" of Shang dynasty China (1600–1046 BCE) to the writings of England's 16th-century "astrologer-physicians, Véliz shows that "prediction cannot be disentangled from power." In classical Greece, for instance, the priestesses of the Oracle of Delphi were known to bribes in return for delivering convenient political messages. Véliz shows how statistical prediction similarly undergirded a range of fraught political and economic developments in the 19th century, from the rise of race science to the emergence of the insurance industry. The proliferation in recent years of machine learning, large language models, and so-called artificial intelligence has turbocharged the role of prediction in culture, she notes. The rise of AI chatbots, in particular, has brought humans back full circle to ancient forms of prophecy like the Oracle of Delphi. By employing statistical models to guess the most appropriate response to a given prompt, chatbots enact the same ancient feedback loop of power and desire, hidden behind a quasi-mystical process. Véliz elucidates complex philosophical and technological concepts with ease, while covering a vast range of topics. Lively and erudite, this impresses.
