Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them
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- $12.99
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- $12.99
Publisher Description
An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy.
Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better.
In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better.
In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people.
Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States.
PUBLISHERS WEEKLY
Economist journalist Morris debuts with a detailed rundown of how public opinion polling has evolved from ancient Greece to the present day and why it is essential for democratic societies. Contending that polls "shape the government's understanding of what the people want from their leaders," Morris traces the concept that public opinion, or the "general will," should guide the processes of lawmaking and governing to Enlightenment philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau and notes that the first published straw polls appeared during the 1824 U.S. presidential election. Elsewhere, Morris recounts how George Gallup's efforts to better measure the interests of newspaper readers helped make him "the father of modern public opinion surveys" in the 20th century; explains the numerous factors that contribute to inaccurate polls, including sampling errors, refusals by certain types of respondents to participate, and imprecise or biased questions; and describes how polls can be used to manipulate public opinion. Though Morris's discussions of technical matters, including the "raking" algorithm pollsters use to determine whether their surveys are representative, can be heavy going, he makes a persuasive case for the necessity of polling and the need to better educate the public about how it works. Political junkies and policy analysts will savor this informative deep dive.