The crime forecasting process. Application, critique and discussion

The development of new information systems and data mining techniques has made it possible to make predictions of the place, time, victim or perpetrator of a future crime by analyzing past crime reports.

Providing that enough relevant data has been collected before, computational algorithms can be used to find patterns and forecast crimes. Underlying theories make use of criminological findings such as the increased threat to areas already targeted once or to areas close to a victimized neighborhood.

The usage of computers allows for a quicker and more effective analysis as well as the discovery of patterns otherwise not humanly detectable. In order to be effective, forecasts need to be followed by concrete measures. They can be used to plan police operations and specifically deploy forces and resources in realtime.

This paper describes the most important steps of the crime forecasting process.